Israeli Foreign Minister Foresees U.S.-Brokered Israel-Saudi Deal by Early 2024

A Historic Transformation

The normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would mark a profound transformation in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. It would formally unite two major U.S. partners, presenting a significant foreign-policy achievement for President Joe Biden as he approaches his reelection bid in late 2024.

Optimism from Key Figures

President Biden expressed optimism about the prospects of this groundbreaking deal during discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday. Separately, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman conveyed that “every day we get closer” to reaching an agreement.

Challenges in the Negotiations

However, a complex web of interrelated issues complicates these negotiations. Riyadh’s pursuit of a civilian nuclear program poses challenges to both U.S. and Israeli policy. Additionally, Saudi and U.S. calls for advancements in the Palestinian cause within the context of any agreement may clash with the preferences of Netanyahu’s hard-right government.

Bridging the Gaps

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Foreign Minister Eli Cohen expressed optimism about the negotiations, stating, “The gaps can be bridged.” He acknowledged that it would require time but emphasized that progress is evident. Cohen added, “I think there is certainly a likelihood that, in the first quarter of 2024, four or five months from now, we will be able to reach a point where the details of a deal are finalized.”

This timeline could enable the Biden administration to navigate a review period in the U.S. Congress and Senate and secure ratification before the presidential ballot in November.