India
Introduction: Russia’s recent move to consider withdrawing from the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has raised alarms among Western security analysts. While President Vladimir Putin framed it as a response to the United States, which signed but did not ratify the treaty, experts fear that Russia may be paving the way for an actual nuclear test. Such a test would have significant implications, likely prompting other world powers to resume testing for the first time this century and escalating global nuclear tensions.
Growing Likelihood of a Russian Test: Although Putin’s stated aim is to mirror the U.S. position, many experts now see a rising possibility of a Russian nuclear test. While it is not certain, analysts like James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believe it shouldn’t be a surprise if such an event occurs.
The Framework for Testing: Experts like Matthew Harries, director of proliferation and nuclear policy at the RUSI think-tank in London, suggest that if Russia cancels its ratification of the CTBT, it would create a legal and presentational framework for Russia to conduct a nuclear test. This action could serve as a strong form of signalling, emphasizing Russia’s nuclear capabilities and intent to maintain its strategic position.
Escalation and Signaling: While some experts don’t anticipate an immediate nuclear test, they see this move as part of Moscow’s strategy to review its security obligations and seek to address perceived imbalances with the United States. Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian diplomat, envisions the possibility of a Russian nuclear test as a way to send a strong signal while avoiding actual nuclear use. Such tests could aim to change the calculation of costs and benefits in the ongoing crisis.
The Risk of Escalation: Sokov also highlights the risk that escalating tensions may lead to an unintended nuclear conflict. While he believes Putin may not intend to use nuclear weapons, the logic of escalation could result in events spiralling out of control.
A Historical Taboo: Russia has not conducted a nuclear test since 1990, a year before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia ratified the CTBT in 2000. Although the treaty hasn’t formally come into force, it has effectively discouraged nuclear testing. This century, only North Korea has conducted a test involving a nuclear explosion.
Potential Motivations: Experts posit that Putin’s move may be intended as a warning signal or a statement about Russia’s intention to further develop its nuclear weapons. This comes at a time when Russia’s conventional forces face challenges in Ukraine, and Putin has emphasized the significance of nuclear-capable weapons in Russia’s defence posture.
A Series of Signals: Putin’s actions have underscored Russia’s nuclear might throughout the Ukraine crisis. These include announcements regarding nuclear-propelled weapons and the suspension of the New START treaty. Putin’s recent comments on the CTBT were seen as a direct response to a suggestion that Russia should lower its threshold for nuclear use to influence the West.
Monitoring and Global Response: Analysts are closely watching whether Russia lays further groundwork for a test, potentially accusing the United States of preparing one. Additionally, the continued support of the CTBT through the maintenance of global monitoring stations will be significant. Satellite imagery has shown that multiple countries, including Russia, the United States, and China, have developed facilities and tunnels at nuclear test sites in recent years.
Rising Nuclear Risks: If Russia conducts a nuclear test, it could trigger responses from other countries, including the United States, China, India, and Pakistan. This chain reaction would significantly elevate nuclear risks, emphasizing the urgency of avoiding a return to nuclear testing.
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