India
As the political buzz intensifies in Bihar, exit polls from 11 leading agencies indicate a likely return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2025 assembly elections. The projections show the NDA maintaining a comfortable lead over the Mahagathbandhan, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) struggles to make a mark in the state.
Although official results will only be announced on Friday, November 14, by the Election Commission of India, exit polls offer an early glimpse into voter sentiment. Ten of the 11 pollsters forecast a clear sweep for the NDA, with only one predicting a closely contested race between the ruling and opposition alliances.
Exit polls, which survey voters immediately after they cast their ballots, aim to capture demographic trends and preferences. While these projections are not always accurate, they provide valuable insight into electoral swings and regional performance ahead of the official count.
Among the pollsters, Poll Diary projected the highest number of seats for the NDA at 184-209, while Axis My India offered a lower range of 121-141 seats. For the Mahagathbandhan, Axis My India predicted the highest seat count at 98-118, whereas Poll Diary forecasted only 32-49 seats. Across projections, the Jan Suraaj Party was expected to win between zero and five seats, highlighting its minimal influence in this election.
The NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United), leveraged Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 11-year tenure at the Centre and Nitish Kumar’s two-decade-long rule in Bihar to consolidate voter support. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress, focused on promises such as government jobs, financial aid for women, exam reforms, and interest waivers for self-help groups, while highlighting corruption and governance issues under the Nitish Kumar administration.
Regionally, the NDA performed strongly across most areas, except Seemanchal, traditionally a Mahagathbandhan stronghold. Interestingly, despite the NDA’s projected majority, surveys on preferred chief minister revealed a twist: Tejashwi Yadav was more popular among voters than incumbent Nitish Kumar. Axis My India reported 34 percent preference for Tejashwi compared to 22 percent for Nitish, while Peoples Pulse showed a closer 32-30 split.
The elections also exposed the limited impact of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which many analysts had predicted could disrupt the traditional political landscape in Bihar. Pollsters consistently forecast minimal seat gains for JSP, suggesting that the party failed to resonate with a broader voter base.
As Bihar prepares for the official count, all eyes remain on whether the exit polls reflect the final outcome, and whether the NDA will indeed secure a decisive victory or face any last-minute surprises from regional and emerging parties.
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