China’s Next-Generation Submarines Pose Tracking Challenge for U.S. and Allies

Introduction: China is intensifying its submarine arms race with the development of the Type 096 ballistic missile submarine. This new generation of nuclear-armed submarines is expected to be operational before the end of the decade, presenting a significant tracking challenge for the U.S. and its allied efforts in the Indo-Pacific region.

Advanced Submarine Development: Analysts and defence attaches in the region have pointed to evidence suggesting that China is making strides in developing quieter submarines, aided in part by Russian technology. Research presented at the U.S. Naval War College in May and published by the China Maritime Studies Institute in August indicates that these new vessels, known as Type 096 submarines, will be exceptionally challenging to track.

Increased Tracking Efforts: The discreet tracking of China’s nuclear-powered and armed ballistic missile submarines, referred to as SSBNs, has become a core driver for increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other Indo-Pacific militaries. The challenge of tracking these advanced submarines is expected to intensify when the Type 096 submarines become operational.

Type 094 Submarines: China’s older Type 094 submarines, which carry advanced submarine-launched JL-3 missiles, have been conducting fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols. However, these submarines are considered relatively noisy, limiting their effectiveness in military operations.

Implications for the U.S. and Allies: The research indicates that the Type 096 submarine will rival state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors, and weapons, which could have “profound” implications for the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies.

Construction Timeline: Based on satellite imagery and analysis, construction of the Type 096 submarines is expected to be on schedule, with operational capabilities anticipated by 2030, as outlined in the Pentagon’s annual reports on China’s military.

Russian Technology and Breakthroughs: The research highlights potential breakthroughs in various areas, including pump-jet propulsion and internal quieting devices, achieved through the “imitative innovation” of Russian technology. However, neither the Russian nor the Chinese defence ministries have provided comments on these developments.

Regional Impact and Response: The prospect of advanced Type 096 SSBNs is expected to complicate submarine surveillance efforts and drive increased anti-submarine warfare drills, as well as deployments of sub-hunting aircraft across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The AUKUS deal among Australia, Britain, and the U.S. is one response to the evolving submarine landscape.

Conclusion: China’s progress in developing quieter and more advanced submarines poses a tracking challenge for the U.S. and its allies. The ongoing arms race in the underwater domain has significant implications for the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific region, driving increased surveillance and response efforts.